The operational euro kicked things off on Saturday, March 4 showing two feet of snow for the March 12-13 time frame getting those who don’t know better excited. The well-known-to-be-outrageous euro control model of the ensembles even produced 40 inches. Then a number of professional and amateur meteorologists got actual raging boners for the Sunday, March 12 Mid-Atlantic snowstorm possibility this past Monday, March 5 based on near-consensus among the GFS, Canadian, and euro giving 6-10 inches in their model runs.

Then the possibility completely faded within 24 hours worth of model runs and by Tuesday mid-day, it was obvious that the upper level and surface patterns would send the storm south and the meteorologists all went completely flaccid.

The professional meteorologists are lucky the models didn’t continue to advertise the storm. All of the pent-up anxiety over a no-snow winter with many busted winter forecasts could have resulted in a March, 2013 snowquester-type bust where meteorologists went with the models’ wishcasting despite their obvious shortcomings and borderline-cold March airmass.

What this winter has proven is that absent an absolute textbook upper level pattern setup, like with the blizzard of January, 2016, the models (euro included) still suck balls beyond five days and often beyond only three days. Given that the models have sucked beyond 3-5 days for over 20 years now, I blame funding having gone to the great global warming (or climate change) fraud, rather than weather prediction, for the stagnation. That and the fact that I believe weather and climate is very complex, something that the prevailing weather and climate science paradigm insists is very simple. Until the paradigm shift finally occurs, I expect more of the same.

Lots of chatter started about the Oroville Dam today and whether or not it will fail when the next round of heavy rain comes in. If it fails, it seems likely it will be towards Monday or Tuesday of next week. That will be in the middle of approximately 10 inches of forecasted rain from Sunday through Wednesday with another couple of inches prior to that.

This comes after the dam nearly failed last weekend and in the most unsurprising news story ever, it was revealed that officials were warned that the exact scenario that happened could have happened. The only real question about the inevitable news that came out was how long ago were they warned? In this case it was back in 2005.

Also, somehow this is Trump’s fault according to fearless investigative journalists:

Meanwhile, my twitter feed has displayed this picture a couple of times:

Regardless of the politics in the top half of the image, the question posed in the bottom half seems very relevant right now (if you’re someone who doesn’t believe Trump should have been on top of things back in 2005 or when the dam was built in 1967-68).

Just as stupid, this debacle comes after repeated alarmism of a permanent drought in CA up through last Fall – news articles were constantly appearing stating this up to less than five months ago. A similar situation happened with Texas, where Texas was supposedly in a permanent drought for years before getting rained on. Heavily. For years. It’s almost as if “scientists” don’t understand how climate works, or maybe, just maybe, these “experts” have an agenda.

 

Hereford Zone: 2-4 inches
Immediate Baltimore metro area: 1-2 inches
DC, Northern VA, Annapolis: coating
Southern MD: nothing

Discussion:
All models are on board for rain changing to snow for Baltimore as a low passes by to our south then strengthens. The timing of rain changing to snow should be a couple hours before dawn Thursday morning. Snow should be over by mid-day (except see below). A number of model runs have placed 4-6 inches in the downtown Baltimore area. I seriously doubt this will be the case and antecedent warm conditions will largely prevent the roads from becoming too bad (pavement temperatures are currently in the 50s) and snow will likely only accumulate on grassy areas and cars. In fact, the farthest south the actual freezing line gets in any model run has been Baltimore. The Hereford Zone and other areas of Maryland near the Mason Dixon line may receive 6 inches if the air gets cold enough fast enough. As for schools, snow should be falling at dawn with a forecast of snow through the morning, so come to your own conclusions based on that information.

A big boom scenario would put 6 inches in downtown Baltimore and 3 in the DC area, but I find that very unlikely to occur and would be dependent on the low pressure hanging on the coast for a bit before ejecting east-northeast. The bust scenario is the more likely one to occur between boom/bust and that would be an all rain event, even for Baltimore, with perhaps a coating of snow at the end.

An upper level trough will swing through behind the low pressure system later Thursday around the evening rush hour. This could result in snow squalls that could produce a half inch of snow in any given location and this applies to the whole area including DC and southern Maryland.

Regarding the snow chances later Wednesday night or Thursday, models are saying a small area of low pressure is going to form towards southwest VA or western North Carolina and track east-northeast from there. This is after the cold front has passed by, which would indicate a rain changing to snow scenario. There are several reasons to believe there won’t be that much snow or if snow falls, it won’t have much impact:

1. It will be very warm tomorrow and Wednesday.
2. Snow chances are entirely dependent on low track.
3. This low would be weak sauce.
4. Models have only brought the snow line down to Baltimore in their runs that have snow, while many runs have had it stay north of the Mason-Dixon line.

However, the euro has been tracking the low just right so it will be curious to see what happens. The GFS has also developed a second small band of snow Thursday afternoon or evening. I wouldn’t be surprised if enough snow falls to mess up the Hereford Zone at some point. As for the rest of Baltimore County, I have my doubts that there will be anything of significance to cause a delay or closure. DC, northern VA and southern MD look shut out from any real snow possibilities from this one.

The 18z GFS produces 3.5 inches for Baltimore City through Thursday evening assuming a 10:1 ratio. It’s highly unlikely that all of this would stick, even if 3.5 inches worth of snow were to fall.

 

The Kuchera method of measuring snowfall from the model produces 1.5 inches and this is a more realistic result for this run.