The mid-day model runs diverged fairly significantly with the snow possibility for Monday night into Tuesday. First up was the GFS, which had a coastal hugger and inland track once it got up to northern New England. The hugging of the coast resulted in the rain/mix line going over top of the I95 corridor for the Mid-Atlantic in the middle/end of the storm resulting in what would likely be a 6 or 8 inch slop when it was all said and done. The Canadian came in next and its 12z run took the storm east with virtually no snow for the I95 corridor in the Mid-Atlantic. The euro then came in splitting the difference and giving all snow to the I95 corridor and southern MD with accumulations likely over a foot.

Out of the three, I find the GFS and euro scenarios to be the most likely with the Canadian being the more unlikely of the three. In fact, the Canadian’s upper level energy was weaker than the other two and its model run formed a rather odd looking double barrel of low pressure oriented north-south out over the Atlantic. It was odd given the scenario and the surface low pressures splitting like this and weaker upper level energy may have been a result of the model initializing poorly. The 18z GFS was nearly identical to the 12z run, but it made a small step towards the euro’s solution in the upper levels of its model run.

Perhaps the best sign for snow lovers is the euro ensembles that came in the middle of the afternoon. The ensembles gave Baltimore a 50% chance of a foot of snow or more. This is a quite high probability this far out and would be a huge fail for the euro model suite if no snow were to fall for Baltimore.

My decision on whether I think snow is a probability or not will come Saturday afternoon.